Agricultural Film Futures 1-Trend analysis in May
as one of the important industrial raw materials, more than 80% of the total consumption of plastics is used for agricultural films and packaging films, the production demand and consumption cycle trend of these two major products have had a significant impact on the trend of plastic market. There is a great correlation between the production seasonality of film and plastic film, greenhouse film and agricultural products, which also forms a certain seasonal characteristic of plastic market.
by observing the periodic characteristic chart of agricultural film consumption, it can be seen that December to January of the following year is the preparation period for plastic film production. With the increase of demand, the plastic increase is gradually rising, 2- The consumption of agricultural film reached its peak in March, which was also the first peak season for plastic demand. 4. May is the slack season, and plastics may fall under pressure. July is the preparation period for greenhouse film production, and plastics may usher in a second wave of gains, september and are the most familiar traditional peak seasons for plastic consumption, and the consumption season for packaging films is also mainly concentrated in 9-In December. Considering that the influence of packaging film is not as good as agricultural film for the proportion of plastic consumption to a certain extent, the plastic market may also be under pressure after the end of the peak season of greenhouse film and plastic film production in October, the performance will definitely fall back.
From the beginning of January this year to the middle of early February, commodities rebounded as a whole. Lian Su continued the bottom-hunting rebound in December. At the same time, under the pursuit of funds, after two days of continuous plastic sales of nearly one million hands, it was successfully pulled up from 9600 points to above the 10,000-point mark.
There was a short continuous decline in middle February, mainly due to the slow increase in the operating rate of downstream factories after the holiday, which had a certain impact on the market mentality. At the same time, the delivery of the 1201 contract was completed, and the supply at the spot level showed a certain increase, but the downstream demand remained weak, so the upward trend of the futures price was restrained to some extent. In addition, at the end of February, the national oil price stopped rising and adjusted back, which also continued the decline in February for some time.
from late February to middle March, due to the renewed tension in Iran, the price of crude oil went up all the way, and Brent crude oil rose more than 120 US dollars per barrel. With the rise of upstream raw materials and further transmission in the petrochemical industry chain, plastics are also driven by costs, and the futures price has also risen from 10500 points to per ton, it once rose to the level of 10745 points.
during the period from late March to the end of April, with the rising price of upstream ethylene and naphtha, the substantial increase in upstream cost has doubled the cost pressure of petrochemical duo, under the background of the sharp decline in production profits, with the absolute advantage of its own market share, petrochemical enterprises have also adopted measures to reduce production and guarantee prices, and passed on the pressure of rising costs to downstream production enterprises. The downstream demand is gradually decreasing. At the end of March, the peak season for agricultural film consumption has also ended, so the demand remains in a relatively weak state, even if there is the willingness of cost experts from upstream enterprises, however, the willingness of downstream companies to get goods is not particularly strong. Therefore, the new main contract 1209, which completed the transfer of the warehouse, also experienced a shock all the way down and fell back to the position of 10500.
by May, the peak season for film consumption had basically ended. The main contract 09 continued the decline in the fourth phase and showed an accelerated decline. Such an accelerated downturn may be more from the overall macro situation at home and abroad, which has led to increased market concerns.
internationally, the US non-agricultural data at the beginning of this month was not as good as expected, and the turmoil in Greece also cast a shadow over the capital market. The European debt issue has once again become a thorny issue on the international stage.
In the domestic market, the macro-economic data in April also showed that the economic growth rate had slowed down to a certain extent. The effective domestic demand was obviously insufficient. International crude oil combined with continuous decline, therefore, Lian Su reflects the situation of not falling with the rise, and more is caused by the weakness of Lian Su.
in terms of spot, the market at the beginning of this year once again continued the situation of the traditional peak season in the second half of last year. From the overall trend, it is consistent with the futures market in the first half of the year. Crude oil maintained a high level in the first four months of this year, but the strength of the spot market was far less than expected.
let's look at this year's trend chart of the plastic spot market, which is also divided into five stages:
The spot price in the first quarter is rising as a whole, mainly due to the increase in upstream international crude oil and petrochemical quotations, the spot price of plastics has played a certain cost support. After the holiday, it will maintain a high level of consolidation in February. During this period, the demand for plastic film in North China reflects the low peak season. Coupled with the drought in parts of the Southwest, the operating rate of downstream enterprises is also limited, and there is no substantial improvement in supply and demand. The mentality of the market has also been suppressed. So we saw that the atmosphere of the plastic transaction was relatively light when it was running at a high level.
In March, plastics had a certain upward space under the support of petrochemical production reduction and price protection.
In the first half of April, although futures continued to decline, resulting in poor spot transactions, however, we see that the spot market at this time is actually relatively strong from the perspective of the support of the ex-factory price. However, starting from the middle and late April, we know that there was a selling pressure in the futures market and a follow-up in the spot market, and the range was relatively large.
judging from the market situation in May, the downward trend of agricultural film spot is still and continues to be in the process of bottoming out. Now, the term price of agricultural film futures has shown a certain upside down.